04203cam a22005052c 4500 1950263185 DE-627 20260514010211.0 cr uuu---uuuuu 260127s2013 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c 9781475532425 978-1-4755-3242-5 (DE-627)1950263185 (DE-599)KEP030788587 (EBC)EBC1607129 (EBL)EBL1607129 (EBR)ebr10687572 (RPAM)MIL457651 (DE-627-1)030788587 DE-627 ger DE-627 rda eng 339.5/2 1\p Blanchard, Olivier 1948- VerfasserIn (DE-588)115601929 (DE-627)077355512 (DE-576)164000453 aut Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Washington International Monetary Fund 2013 ©2013 1 online resource (44 pages) Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts -- A. Specification and Data -- B. Results -- III. Robustness -- A. Choice of Economies and Role of Outliers -- B. Controlling for Other Variables -- Actual vs. Planned Fiscal Consolidation -- C. Different Forecast Vintages -- IV. Extensions -- A. Government Spending and Revenue -- B. Components of Aggregate Spending and Unemployment -- C. Alternative Forecasts -- V. Conclusions -- Appendix -- References -- Tables -- Table 1. Main Results -- Table 2. Europe: Robustness to Additional Controls -- Table 3. Europe: Two-stage Least Squares -- Table 4. 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts -- Table 5. Europe: Government Revenue and Spending -- Table 6. Europe: Unemployment and GDP Components -- Table 7. Europe: Alternative Forecasters -- Appendix Table 1. Europe: Controlling for Ex-post Developments -- Appendix Table 2. All Advanced Economies: Robustness to Additional Controls -- Appendix Table 3. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls -- Appendix Table 4. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Time-Varying β, Robustness to Additional Controls -- Appendix Table 5. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls, Time-Varying β and γ -- Appendix Table 6. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Controlling for Vulnerability Rating -- Figures -- Figure 1. Europe: Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts -- Figure 2. Europe: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts -- Figure 3. All Advanced Economies: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts. Multiplier (Economics) -- Econometric models Economic development -- Forecasting -- Econometric models Fiscal policy -- Econometric models Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Leigh, Daniel MitwirkendeR ctb 9781475576443 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9781475576443 https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/kxp/detail.action?docID=1607129 X:EBC Aggregator lizenzpflichtig 1 1\p cgwrk 20260501 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk ZDB-30-PQE 4864876762 DE-3 3 GBV d https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/ulbhalle-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1607129 BO