02443cam a22003972c 4500 43810806X DE-603 20221007184403.0 cr ||||||||||| 181029s2013 xx |||| o| u00| u|eng c 10.3386/w18779 doi (DE-599)HEB43810806X DE-603 ger DE-603 DE-603 eng 1\p Blanchard, Olivier 1948- Verfasser aut (DE-603)149779283 (DE-588)115601929 gnd Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers Olivier J. Blanchard, Daniel Leigh Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2013 1 Online Ressource Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier NBER working paper series no. w18779 This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. Leigh, Daniel http://www.nber.org/papers/w18779 Verlag kostenfrei http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18779 Resolving-System kostenfrei 1\p cgwrk 20220215 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk ZDB-194-NBW 30 (DE-603)1031928081 DE-30 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 946 (DE-603)1183112130 DE-946 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 17 (DE-603)103192809X DE-17 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 Ds 114 (DE-603)1031928103 DE-Ds114 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 66 (DE-603)103192812X DE-66 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 34 (DE-603)1031928138 DE-34 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 26 (DE-603)1031928154 DE-26 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779 4 (DE-603)1031928162 DE-4 HES d https://doi.org/10.3386/w18779