05095cam a22008894i 4500 edocfu_9958104848702883 DE-602 20170817212055.0 m o d cr -n--------- 020129s2013 dcu o i00 0 eng d 1-4755-1847-1 1-4755-3242-3 1-299-26401-8 (CKB)2560000000098770 (EBL)1607129 (SSID)ssj0001177968 (PQKBManifestationID)11701627 (PQKBTitleCode)TC0001177968 (PQKBWorkID)11168077 (PQKB)10310300 (MiAaPQ)EBC1607129 (IMF)WPIEE2013001 (IMF)WPIEA2013001 (NBER)w18779 (EXLCZ)992560000000098770 DcWaIMF eng rda eng DE-188;9958104848702883 HB3730 .B53 2013 Blanchard, Olivier. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers / Olivier Blanchard, Daniel Leigh. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013. 1 online resource (44 p.) text txt computer c online resource cr IMF Working Papers "January 2013." "Research Department." Includes bibliographical references. Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Forecast Errors and Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; A. Specification and Data; B. Results; III. Robustness; A. Choice of Economies and Role of Outliers; B. Controlling for Other Variables; Actual vs. Planned Fiscal Consolidation; C. Different Forecast Vintages; IV. Extensions; A. Government Spending and Revenue; B. Components of Aggregate Spending and Unemployment; C. Alternative Forecasts; V. Conclusions; Appendix; References; Tables; Table 1. Main Results; Table 2. Europe: Robustness to Additional Controls; Table 3. Europe: Two-stage Least Squares Table 4. 2009-12 Panel of ForecastsTable 5. Europe: Government Revenue and Spending; Table 6. Europe: Unemployment and GDP Components; Table 7. Europe: Alternative Forecasters; Appendix Table 1. Europe: Controlling for Ex-post Developments; Appendix Table 2. All Advanced Economies: Robustness to Additional Controls; Appendix Table 3. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls; Appendix Table 4. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Time-Varying β, Robustness to Additional Controls Appendix Table 5. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Robustness to Additional Controls, Time-Varying β and γAppendix Table 6. Europe: 2009-12 Panel of Forecasts, Controlling for Vulnerability Rating; Figures; Figure 1. Europe: Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; Figure 2. Europe: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts; Figure 3. All Advanced Economies: 2009-12 Panel Growth Forecast Errors vs. Fiscal Consolidation Forecasts This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. English Description based on print version record. Multiplier (Economics) Econometric models. Economic development Forecasting Econometric models. Fiscal policy Econometric models. Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. Macroeconomics imf Public Finance imf Business Fluctuations imf Cycles imf Fiscal Policy imf Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General imf Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt imf National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General imf Public finance & taxation imf Fiscal consolidation imf Fiscal multipliers imf Expenditure imf Fiscal policy imf Fiscal stance imf Expenditures, Public imf New Zealand imf Leigh, Daniel. International Monetary Fund. Research Department. ISBN 1-4755-2390-4 ISBN 1-4755-7644-7 IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/001 BOOK 9958104848702883 DE-188 KOBV c KOBV false oai:alma.49KOBV_FUB:9958104848702883 Available 53950674530002883